Spartan Race

Oh my goodness, I can't even believe I just missed the Spartan Race in Malibu!  It was this past Sunday.  I was looking at it a few months ago and it looked like so much fun!  It's a 5k race with obstacles such as barbed wire crawl, jumping through fire, mud crawl, spear throw, cargo net climb, 12' slippery ramp etc.  I think if you mess up or can't finish an obstacle, you get punished by having to do like 10 pushups or whatever they decide to have you do.  So I guess there's people yelling at you (in a good way), you get down and dirty, and at the end they give you a spartan metal and beer!  I think a lot of people dress up in gladiator outfits too.  Someone I know did the Spartan Race in Irvine right after Thanksgiving, and said it was awesome.  I'm guessing though that this is a race where you don't want to show up in your best looking Lululemon outfit.

Here are some pictures of what I missed!

Everyone looks like they are having a great time too.  And any race held in Malibu is pretty great regardless.  Ahhh... I will not miss it next year!  I get bored running pretty easily.  So this is just what I need! 

Lululemon Stock & My Commentary =)

As one of my favorite stores, I tend to pay attention to news about Lululemon.  Since a large part of expectation of earnings, and hence, stock price is due to analyst estimates and recommendations, I figured I would look into it a little more closely.  I am an analyst after all!  Except I specialize in fixed income, not equities.  Hehe.  Last week Lululemon stock price went to an all time high following the announcement of strong 3rd quarter earnings.  I almost bought call options the day before the earnings announcement at strike price of $65, but decided it was too risky because that was a big jump.  And then of course it went above $65!  Ugh!!!  I could have made about $20 grand!!  The same thing happened in Q2 as well.  I mean overall I think I "lost" about $100,000 from sitting out!  I could have made back all the money I've spent there, and then some!

Ok, not all is lost.  Let's take a look at some Bloomberg data for LULU.

The peer comparison to Bloomberg peers, which are basically all different public retail companies.  Not necessarily a good representation of Lulu's main competitors, but still worth a look.

Check out the sales growth and total return compared to the peers and S&P500 index - crazy!!

The company is obviously in a supernormal growth mode.  They don't pay out any dividends, and their growth rate (which is purely return on equity) is almost 40%.  Here's a comparison between Q3 2010 and Q3 2009.  It's a lot of boring numbers to look at, but almost all the growth rates have increased.

(Click to Enlarge)

All the ratios look solid as well - they've increased profitability, increased investments, increased turnover in receivables, inventory, and shortened cash conversion cycles (increasing liquidity).  They have TONS of cash, and almost no debt.  This means they can expand and invest/acquire more stores without financing.  Here are some of the financial ratios.

I think sometimes a graph is really worth a thousand words.....

What's interesting (and a good thing) is that they've increased their cash and equity while keeping liabilities and other expenses relatively constant.

Here again, revenue and income increased while cost stays pretty much constant over these quarters.

Ok so all looks good.  I then decided to see what the company is up to in terms of expansion.  I found some interesting news that I was not aware of - they are buying back franchises.  They've increased their lululemon australia holdings from 13% to 80% in May, and it in turn became their subsidiary.  They've also reacquired the franchise in Saskatchewan in July.  This is why we can see below that their sales from franchises have decreased, while sales from corporate owned stores and wholesale (website and phone sales) have increased.  Dramatically for the latter.  They are really focusing on their online store.

And from this following chart, we can see that the sales in the US and Asia Pacific (Australia and Japan) have increased dramatically as well.

I think Bloomberg made a typo with regards to the 2009 and 2010 numbers for Asia Pacific - in 2010 it probably should be closer to 7.59.  The US growth I can attest to.  While I almost never see people at my gym who do not wear Lululemon, I also go to Equinox and sometimes different pricey private studios so the clientele have more disposable income.  But lately I've been seeing more and more Lululemon just out and about - people in groove pants running errands, hoodies, etc.  I see the Define Jacket almost everywhere I go now.  In the past, I've always seen girls at my gym wear one piece of Lulu, most commonly Groove pants, but more and more so recently I've been seeing full on Lulu outfits, including the newest items that just hit the stores.  I've also seen more guys wear it as well.  And I see Lulu shopping bags everywhere too!  So the brand is definitely gaining popularity fast. 

But I also find it strange that with all the popularity, Lululemon does not trademark any of their performance fabrics.  A big part of their selling point is the quality of their performance fabrics such as luon, luxtreme, silverescent, etc.  In fact, they don't even have long term contracts with raw material suppliers which is pretty risky as the suppliers can 1. increase the price unexpectedly and in turn increase cost for Lulu, and 2. umm stop supplying under short notice and disrupt Lulu's inventory flow.  As much potential as this company has, they really need a solid senior management team in order to stay afloat with their rapid growth rate.  Brand loyalty will fade if they lose quality and reputation.  

Anyway, like I said, I'm not a stock analyst and I did my research in like 15 minutes.  Lol.  But I do have training in this area, and I can see why most brokerage houses give Lulu a "hold" or "sell" recommendation instead of "buy".  Lululemon option has some of the highest implied price volatility.  The company is growing at a unsustainable rate and its stock is valued too high.  I'm always cautious when I read about positive financials and earnings because there's so much room for management manipulation in order to beat earnings estimates and increase stock price (Lululemon has lots of employee stock options).  But with that said, a lot of times you can identify a stock that is incorrectly priced too high, but that doesn't mean people won't be buying it at the inflated price.  Back during the dot com bubble, a lot of arbitragers tried to take advantage of the stocks they thought were priced too high by shorting them.  But one after another, those "over valued" companies were acquired by other companies who paid even higher prices.  The arbitragers might have correctly identified the stocks, but they couldn't help that someone else was willing to pay more than their worth, and they still lost lots of money in the end.

So, I believe it definitely is a feat that Lululemon has tripled its price during this economic downturn. I think the brand has more loyalty and following than analysts give it credit for.  I should know that first handed.  That of course, is something that cannot be measured by monetary value.  Perhaps it is being captured in the stock price and it's not over valued after all.  I see good things happening, and I think I will take the plunge.  The last quarter is usually the best quarter for Lululemon due to holiday sales.  Also, as we can see below, its holdings right now are primarily among investment advisors.  Due to the high volatility and potential for appreciation, more hedge funds and mutual funds might pick it up which just might increase the price $10-15 more.  I don't care if it's over priced or under priced, I'm not here to correct market inefficiencies.  I just want to make money!  Hehehe

So, I think it's still a great short term investment for Q4.  But I'm not sure about long term holding of the stock.  I would just bet on the option and try to make money on the intrinsic value.  I'm really hoping that I won't be too chicken to actually make the purchase, and maybe I will make some cash to buy more Lulu clothes!

Lululemon Push Ur Limits Tank - Wish Blue Multi Poncho Stripe & Haze Coal

I spent like an hour today at Lululemon trying on anything and everything, and was pretty bored with the stuff in the store.  Nothing really new or interesting.  I kept seeing the same things I've already seen, just in newer colors.  And what's up with ruffles on everything??  Not a fan.  I feel like that look is overdone and ages me.  But on the other hand, my fiance said that some of the ruffled pullovers and jackets would be great for his mom though.

The only thing that I thought was kind of cool is a new jacket called Lift Your Spirits jacket.  It's made of brushed power luxtreme, and it's really soft on the inside.  Feels like brushed luon but thinner.  And way stretchy.  I tried on the wish blue color and liked it.  It's a longer jacket and I thought the fit was flattering.  The bottom 1/3 of the jacket is a really wide stretchy panel that starts at right around the waist and ends at below the hips.  The top portion of the back is looser fitting and creates an airy look above the bottom panel.  I don't know if that makes any sense at all, but it makes the side view look really slimming which was the only reason I mildly considered buying it.  I guess I should have taken a picture, but I didn't think of it at the time.  I didn't buy it because the front of the jacket was too loose even in the size 2.  I think this is a size down jacket anyway but I did try on size 4 and it was pretty similar in fit.  My chest did not fill the front out properly in either size.  It made me look like an undeveloped 10 year old.  And also it was $148 so it had to be perfect for me to consider buying. I guess I didn't find it *special* enough for the price tag.

So since I was bored with everything, I decided to just get 2 more Push Ur Limits Tanks.  In wish blue / multi poncho stripe and haze / coal.  So now I have 4 of these tanks.

Wish Blue / Multi Poncho Stripe

Haze / Coal

The Push Ur Limits tank is one of my favorite tanks to work out in.  I love the wide straps and the contrasting colors.  It's such a cute tank with a great fit and support.  Luxtreme is cool and quick drying.  It fits kind of like second skin, so it shows everything.  So I think it's a great way to keep motivated!  I think the multi poncho stripe print on the wish blue one is way fun.  I like to have tanks that are different and eye-catching.  And I love the haze/coal combo for a more muted look.

Ok, hopefully next time I go to Lulu I will see some new and interesting things that I can't live without!  Maybe they will make some new running tights in brushed power luxtreme, and I will be all over that.

Shu Uemura Cleaning Oil & Soft Cross Lashes

I am really upset that Shu Uemura is no longer being sold in the US.  I guess L'Oreal, who owns 20% of Shu, decided to pull it out of all US stores earlier this year.  So now the only place I can get it is through their website.  It's a travesty!  L'Oreal claims that they did it because the US market for Shu is very small compares to other countries, and they would rather focus on the brands that make more money.  That is so short-sighted of them!  Shu Uemura has great products, such as the famous cleansing oil and eyelash curler which were immensely popular.  I was looking forward to more stores to open closer to me.  But instead they are gone even from the Barney's makeup counters!  I think they are still being sold in Cananda though for those lucky duckies!

I guess I should be happy that at least I can still get my favorite products online.  It just sucks because it's harder to discover more products this way.  But I was still able to replenish my favorite cleansing oil.

 

It's seriously the best thing.  I use it everyday.  It's great for removing makeup, even persistent waterproof mascara.  I do have to use a face wash after using the cleansing oil though, because it's obviously oil based and I don't like the feeling of oil leftover on my face. A bottle lasts forever too.  I usually get the 64 oz and it literally lasts years.  So for the price tag of $70, it's really a pretty damn good deal.

I also replenished my Soft Cross false lashes from Shu.  I've tried out lots of different false lashes in my day.  But nothing comes close to the lashes from Shu.  So I've been using them for years.  They are the best quality and are beautifully made.  I can wear them over and over again.  They have very dramatic looking ones, as well as the more natural looking ones as well.  My favorite ones are the Soft Cross, and the Smoky Layers.

Soft Cross

Smoky Layers

They are pretty similar, except smoky layers are thicker than soft cross.  I find that the soft cross ones are thin and natural looking enough that they can be worn during the day without looking like you have too much makeup on.  At least that's how I feel.  Hehe.

The smoky layers are definitely not the most dramatic lashes that Shu makes, but I don't really want to go for the drag queen look the super thick lashes tend to give at times.  So I think smoky layers are the perfect go out on the town wear.  I think I have like 3 pairs of them laying around, because I don't really wear them that often anymore.   They really last forever.  The soft cross ones, because they are thinner, don't last quite as long. 

Anyway, so I think that if anyone is thinking about trying out lashes, look no further!

Swarovski Stonehenge Gold and Crystal Drop Earrings

Ok I guess I'm now a fan of Swarovski jewelry since I keep buying them on Gilt.  My latest order came through and I loooooove them!  I'm not that big of a jewelry person.  But I do love earrings.

The Stonehenge Gold and Crystal Drop Earrings:

I don't think the picture really does them justice.  They are so sparkly and pretty in person!  They are about 1.5 inches long and half an inch wide, and relatively light weight - I was a little worried that they would be heavy and weigh down my ears so phew!  It's got 23K gold plated base metal with the gold colored crystals.  The crystals are actually a very light gold color, and pretty transparent.  They look so pretty with dark brown hair.  When I bought them I thought they would be strictly night time earrings.  But I think I can rock them during the day too.  The Swarovski's site says: "Wear it during the day or to an evening gala. Bold and elegant, the earrings instantly create a sophisticated, classy look."  I must agree!  Hehe.

And the best part is, I got them for free since I had Gilt credit!  They weren't too expensive on Gilt anyway, at $45 vs. $95 retail.  They are actually still on Swarovski's website for full price.  So I feel like these were definitely a deal.  I like.  

So happy about these and can't wait to wear them out! 

Stop Cancer 5k and Some Fun Running Tips!

I ran the Stop Cancer 5k this morning at this golf course/lake area nearby.  I love 5ks, because I can really push my speed when I'm not running distance.  The past 6 months I have been doing a lot of interval work on the treadmill, like sprinting for a few minutes then slowing down, etc., a lot of it on the highest incline which is a bitch, but really helps with improving my speed overall.

I've never been a natural fast runner, and just a short 2 years ago, it was hard for me to finish a mile within 12 minutes.  Now I can run a mile in about 7 minutes so that's big improvement for me.  I really try to aim high though.  Because I used to run next to this woman at the gym a couple mornings a week, and she would always finish 13 miles in that hour! That's like a half marathon!  I mean an hour is a fantastic time for a half marathon race, but to just do it casually on the treadmill... I can't even imagine what her time is during an actual race.  So she's kind of been my inspiration to strive for.  Though she's kind of a super lean and tall amazon woman, and I'll probably never be able to achieve that kind of speed.  But I can try!

Today I finished 3rd or 4th in my age group (official time has not come out yet) but I'm kind of annoyed with myself because the 1st place person was only 30 seconds in front of me!  First place won lots of stuff including a free month membership at Krav Maga.  Grrr.... I should've pushed harder!  If I sprinted the last minute, I would've been #1 for sure.  But of course I didn't know that at the time otherwise I'd probably be sprinting the last mile!  Hehe.  But I guess I should always push hard no matter what.  We knew the lady that finished #1 in her age group though so she gave her free month to us.  I guess I will be trying out Krav Maga soon!  So excited!  I've always been wanting to do it.  Israeli street fighting just sounds like fun for some reason.

My other friend actually finished in 2nd place but only 3 seconds behind the 1st place person.  We should've sweeped it!  Hehehe.  It's kind of funny too that this other friend in our group pushed his son in his stroller and still finished only minutes behind me.  He's a really fast runner, so without his son I'm sure he would have been #1.  I was pretty impressed though, I mean it's hard work pushing a stroller because you don't get to use your arms to help you, and he said he walked the first 5 minutes, so he put up a great time.

He also hooked us up with a couple masseuses to help stretch and massage us after the race.  I know, total overkill for a 5k.  But it was great!  My thighs are so tight and sore from a hard kettlebell class I did on Thursday, and sitting through the test all day yesterday didn't help either.  So that was much needed.  I think I might have to roll with a masseuse every time now.  I got spoiled!

So anyway, I've had the pleasure to work with a great running coach named David Siik through the Lululemon run club.  He is one of their ambassadors, and also a teacher at Equinox.  In typical LA fashion, he also models and appears regularly on the cover of Runner's World.  He gave me a great tip once that has really helped me.  It's so simple too - basically, he said that if you can master the hills, that's where you can pass a lot of people during a race.  And to do that, you just have to lean forward, take smaller but more frequent strides, and pump your arms harder at the same time.  Your arms will propel your legs to keep going even when you are tired because it's a natural bodily reaction.  As simple as it sounds, it really really works.  I've been doing it for my hill training and it makes it much easier.  Today I tested out the theory in a real race and I was able to pass so many people just during the 3 little uphills we had to get through.  It was like people just slowed down so much and I passed them without even really trying.  So I have to credit him for that.

Other than that, I think the speed training is definitely key.  I was running at a steady pace for distance for a long time and was not able to improve my speed nearly as much as I have in the past 6 months of regular interval training.  I think it helps breaking up the monotonous of the treadmill for sure.  I just get so bored running on the treadmill even if I'm watching TV at the same time.  The time just drags.  But if I'm timing myself of a minute sprint, followed by a minute of rest, for 30 minutes or whatever, then it goes by much quicker.

I used to absolutely HATE running on the treadmill, but since my training with some amazing trainers, I have grown to love it.  I thought I'd share some sample interval work on the treadmill that I love:

Hill & Speed Combined - this one is tough - it takes less than 5 minutes total but it will kill you if you try for the best speed you can:

1.  Take the treadmill to the highest incline which is normally 15
2.  Start with a run/jog/power walk for 45 seconds (I normally do it around a speed of 5 or 5.5)
3.  Take the incline down to 12.5 and increasing speed by about 0.5 for another 45 seconds
4.  Take the incline down to 10 and increase speed by another 0.5 for 45 seconds
5.  Take the incline down to 7 and increase speed to the point where you are at a fast run for 45 seconds
6.  Take the incline down to 4 and increase speed to a sprint for 45 seconds
7.  Take the incline down to 0 and increase speed to the fastest sprint you can manage for the last 45 seconds
8.  The end, walk it out
*Note:  You can do the entire thing backwards if you want.  i.e. start at 0 incline and sprinting, and work your way up to 15 incline.

If you are not dead by the end, add 2 sets of Half Moons - these will kills your thighs:

1.  Set the incline at around 5 and speed at between 3 to 4 (lower if you've never gone side ways or backwards on the treadmill)
2.  Take a half step to the right side so that you are sideways on the treadmill, and side shuffle your feet for 45 seconds
3.  Take a half step to the right again so that you are backwards on the treadmill, and run for 45 seconds staying up on your toes
4.  Take a half step to the right so that you are now sideways facing the left and side shuffle for 45 seconds
5.  Take the last half step to the right so that you are facing forward to walk it out for a 30 second recovery
6.  Repeat steps 1-5

Non-Incline, All Speed Work (I usually do this on a 2 incline, but 0 is fine):

1.  Start with 60 second sprint (the appropriate speed is when you should be breathless by the end)
2.  60 second recovery (walk at approximately half of the sprinting speed)
3.  Repeat the top 2 steps for 4 more times
4.  90 second run/sprint where you increase the speed every 30 seconds so choose the speed accordingly
5.  Walk it out

Variable Sprint Times - adjust speed based on each interval's required time (I do this whole set on a 2 incline as well because I never run on 0 incline):

1.  60 second sprint
2.  45 second recovery
3.  90 second sprint
4.  45 second recovery
5.  2 minutes run
6.  60 second recovery
7.  30 second "someone's chasing me in a dark alley" sprint - the fastest you can without falling off the treadmill
8.  90 seconds - 2 minute recovery

Here's a unconventional fun exercise you can do with the treadmill as well:  Plank Walks:
1.  Set the speed to 1 or 1.5
2.  Step off the treadmill
3.  Put your hands on each side of the moving treadmill belt in a full arm plank position (feet on the ground)
4.  When you are ready, move your hands onto the moving treadmill and "walk" with it.  Keep the feet still on the ground, maintaining plank position the whole time
5.  If you think you are going too fast, take longer "strides" with your arms
6.  Do the above for 3 sets of 45 seconds

See, the treadmill isn't always boring!  Just short bursts of high intensity with matching recovery times will improve your performance along with heart health.  Most importantly, I think the trick is really to push your speed within those short amount of times to a point where you might not think you can do.  Because think about it, you really can do anything in 30 or 45 seconds.  I can usually get my speed up to a 10 or so when it's for only 30 seconds.  It's easier mentally as well. 

The above sets have really helped me so I hope that it will help someone else out there as well!  Or at least add more fun to spice up the normal routine!

Freedom at Last!!! And More Express Sweaters!

My CFA test is finally over!!  Geez, 4 months of studying all boils down to one day.  One long day!  It was total 6 hours with 2 hours break in the middle.  I am really glad it's over, and now just hoping that I passed!  I won't know for about 2 months.  But even still, I can't even imagine having to do this 2 more times for Levels 2 and 3.  Yikes.  No wonder they compare this to a graduate level course.

Anyway, so now I can finally catch up on my favorites shows like Fringe and Gossip Girl which have been recording all season but I haven't had time to watch.  Maybe I will even go watch Harry Potter tomorrow!  And SHOP!  So nice to have freedom to do whatever...

Last week I did take a couple minutes off from crazy mock tests and such, to buy 2 more Express V-Neck Sweaters in artillary (army green color) and heather gray.  I love these sweaters for work.  They are the perfect fit and perfect thickness.  That's why I now have 4 of them!  I love these new colors too.  Always good to have earthy tones for work.